LANDLOCKED COUNTRIES, INSTITUTIONS AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS

Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero¹⁺ --- Marco Alberto Nunez Ramirez² --- Yesenia Clark Mendivil³

¹Universidad Autonoma Gabriel Rene Moreno, Faculty of Economics, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia.
^2,3 Instituto Tecnologico de Sonora, Department of Management, Ciudad Obregon, Sonora, Mexico.

Keywords:Landlocked country institutions, DSGE, Counterfactual analysis, Calibration, Observational equivalence, Impact evaluation.

JEL Classification: O43; C11; C22; C61.

ARTICLE HISTORY: Received: 21 October 2019, Revised: 26 November 2019, Accepted: 30 December 2019, Published: 17 February 2020

Contribution/ Originality: The paper's primary contribution is the finding of a -2% permanent effect on GDP of being a landlocked country that could be reduced and mitigated by 68% by institutional innovations. The method used was a DSGE model, moving away from standard regressions identified in the existing literature.

1. INTRODUCTION

Adam Smith was the first to point out and link the existing pattern between the inland geographical areas (landlocked countries) and its association with lower levels of development in 1776 (Faye et al., 2004). On the other hand, from a total of 182 countries, it was observed that 38 were landlocked – without access to the sea (approximately 20% of the total) – and that the remaining percentage had a sea coast. It has also been shown that less than 10% of the countries that are landlocked, are part of the first quartile in the classification of high income countries (Lahiri and Masjid, 2012; Feenstra et al., 2015; Fulk, 2017). 

As a result, there are only four landlocked countries with the highest levels of per capita income by their respective ordinance: Luxembourg, Switzerland, Austria and the Czech Republic: with incomes above USD 25,000 per inhabitant (in comparative US dollars at constant 2011 prices, Purchasing Power Parity, PPP).

Previous studies using a conventional and generalized approach in the use of standard regressions or gravitational models, established a negative relationship (penalty) between the impact of being a landlocked country on growth and the economic dynamics of the affected countries (Head et al., 2010; Paudel, 2014; Moore, 2017). In addition, it had implications with greater deterioration in the institutional quality (for example, in the level of corruption (Dollar and Kraay, 2003; Carmignani, 2015) when contemplating longitudinal or cross-section data through the use of dichotomous variables (1 = landlocked, 0 = with access to the sea).

Therefore the purpose of this study is to answer two research questions: What is the impact of the landlocked shock on the economic dynamics of a country? How can the impacts of being a landlocked country be mitigated?

In order to answer the questions, two main premises were  proposed: i) the shock of landlocked generates a negative and permanent impact on Non-Maritime Goods and Services (production and consumption of a landlocked country); ii) the institutional response mechanism is the structural challenge to mitigate or counteract the condition of being a landlocked country, which would imply the following: landlocked countries with positive institutional innovations, such as proxies with higher institutional quality (higher index) and reduction in  the negative impact it has on economic dynamics, resulting from the shock of the landlock, whose proposal is contrary to the empirical evidence in previous studies.

The academic discussion (theoretical, empirical and application for public policies) focuses on how to neutralize the negative effects of being a landlocked country: Why are few economies successful? Why do most landlocked countries have retarding effects on their economic dynamics?

A fundamental premise was considered based on Carmignani (2015) previous contribution, when considering the role of institutions as the main factor before other comparisons (e.g., international trade); or the approach of Mehlum et al. (2006) where institutions, in reality, are the main factor to consider, while determining the curse or blessing of natural resources or the applied inference in the case of landlocked countries (the first decile or countries of the last decile of income).

In answering the raised questions, an alternative and a different approach has been obtained from previous studies conducted on being a landlocked country; but this time, a model of general equilibrium, dynamic and stochastic, with the base in calibration of the Bolivian economy was used and parameters of economies in observational equivalence were taken as counterfactual cases (with access to the sea) (fourth country in the region of South America). This is the first study to evaluate the subject under this approach.

Consequently, the study consists of four sections: the first one deals with a brief review of the literature about the quantification of the impacts of being a landlocked country; the second one provides the development of a general, dynamic and stochastic equilibrium model of type 2x2x2; the third section comprises the results of the simulation and respective quantification of impact; the fourth section reflects the discussion of the study. At the end of the study, the main conclusions are discussed.

1.1. Brief Literature Review: Landlocked Countries, Institutions and Economic Dynamic

The neoclassical theory of endogenous growth, linked to geographical location, maintains that those countries with a higher degree of being landlocked will have lower economic growth compared to countries with maritime access, and that as a result, their connection with nearby countries for transit and commercial connectivity, transport and logistics costs, infrastructure investments and foreign policy was highlighted (Fulk, 2017).

The different opinions complement each other as multivariate lenses and theoretical approaches are linked to economic geography (e.g., neighborhood theory, landlocked theory, new trade theory, among others) and as a consequence, in terms of economic growth, countries that are landlocked grow to a lesser extent (between -1 and -2% of GDP, according to longitudinal studies of maritime countries) and without direct access to the sea, respectively (MacKellar et al., 2002; Paudel, 2014).

On the average, the impact of landlocked countries to the maritime coast, in comparison with countries with sovereign access, ranges from -51% on international trade (Head et al., 2010) even to -80% (Raballand, 2003). On the other hand, there is a pattern of association between landlocked and its positive relationship with dependence on natural resources (Hance, 1975; Arvis et al., 2010; Sharma and Davaakhuu, 2015)¹ which fall under the so-called natural resource curse hypothesis (Sachs and Warner, 1995) or in this case, double curse (landlocked and dependent on natural resources); although, such a curse did not originate from geographical condition, nor from the abundance of natural wealth, but by the negative role played by institutions (Mehlum et al., 2006).

Similarly, it was  argued that the countries in the condition of being a landlocked have a negative impact on the quality of their institutions in-7% (Carmignani, 2015) or with an incidence of-21% in the quality of the index of the rule of law (Dollar and Kraay, 2003) whose indicators are associated with a deterioration in the restrictions of government power, increased levels of corruption, closed governments, violation of human rights, order and security, as well as affecting the quality of civil and criminal justice.

In this regard, since the seminal contribution of Olson (1982) and North (1990)  based on the importance of institutions with impact either positively or negatively on the dynamics of countries (Knack and Keefer, 1995). These variables are reflects on institutional quality: democracy (Comeau, 2003; Rock, 2009; Narayan et al., 2011) political stability (Barro, 1991; Aisen and Veiga, 2013) property Rights (Tornell and Velasco, 1992; Peev and Mueller, 2012) civil and political freedom (Kormendi and Meguire, 1985; McMillan et al., 1991).

1.2. 2x2x2 Adapted Models to One Landlocked Country

For this study, the peculiarity of the 2x2x2 model is characterized by its adaptation and originality from a non-conventional approach in comparison with previous studies, from the context of being a landlocked country and institutional quality to a small and open economy, as is the case of Bolivia, with a dynamic, rather than static component. In order to achieve this, some central assumptions were considered, as indicated below:

1. There are two types of consumers: maritime families and non-maritime families respectively, represented by their utility functions.
2. Only two types of goods are produced: maritime product (fishing sector and maritime industry) and non-maritime product (traditional sectors of a landlocked country or other non-maritime activity). There are individual production functions, independent of productivity or a given level of technology for each process.
3. There are two productive factors for each type of good: work and physical capital stock, distinguishing the maritime from the non-maritime sector; therefore, there are differentiated costs (wages and return on capital).
4. The objective of the families is the maximization of their social welfare functioning as a utility function subject to a budgetary restriction.
5. The firms' objective is to minimize production costs, subject to the restriction of their production function, respectively.
6. There are price rigidities, for each type of good, in the sense that there are differentiated Phillips Neo-Keynesian curves.
7. There is a central bank that operates using a Taylor monetary rule and a money growth function.
8. Exogenous shocks are assumed to have repercussions as disturbances along the economic structure in dynamic mechanism (institutional landlocked, maritime productivity shocks, currency exchange policy, among others).
9. The parameters of the model were calibrated for an economy with landlocked (example with Bolivia) and are considered counterfactual parameters of similar countries that have access to the sea Figure 1: Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia.
10. There is the presence of a government (with counterfactual income from additional taxes to imports).
11. An external sector is considered to be directly linked to the incidence of landlocked countries and the interrelationship between landlocked countries, the quality of institutions and economic growth.

For the points viii to xi, these countries were considered for three fundamental reasons: there is a similar characterization in geographical context (South Pacific Zone), they are small economies and away from the main international financial markets, and they present a similar economic structure as explained in Appendix 1.

Finally, the shock of being a landlocked country is interpreted as an exogenous disturbance, in terms of distance and time in accessing the Pacific coast (Faye et al., 2004).

Comparative countries with Bolivia: Counterfactual with the sea
(Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Chile)

Figure-1. Comparative countries for parameters and counterfactual variables (fictitious simulation of a landlocked country with sea, the Bolivian Case).Observational equivalence: South Pacific Zone.

Consequently, the standard version of general equilibrium models, dynamic and stochastic (DSGE), in log-linearized version, was followed with decisions of inter-temporal optimization, price and wage rigidities, Taylor's monetary policy and monetary growth, as well as the inclusion of adjustment costs in their investments (Benigno and Woodford, 2003; Smets and Wouters, 2003; Christiano et al., 2005).

In this regard and as stated in Appendix 2, the key parameters to evaluate counterfactual impacts on relations were: institutional landlocked, institutional quality and economic growth in the context of access to the sea (Maritime Economies), Maritime landlocked (Non-Maritime Economies) and the structural challenge in mitigating the condition of being landlocked as listed in Table 1.

Table-1. Counterfactual impact evaluation and sensitivity.

(Economy with access to the sea, Non-maritime and with structural challenge to mitigate the condition of being Landlocked)

Note: It is constituted based on analysis of sensitivity.
Source: Based on author´s review and empirical evidence (Dollar and Kraay, 2003; Head et al., 2010; Paudel, 2014; Carmignani, 2015).

Consequently, the parameters were considered and calibrated for those economies with opens access to the sea (Maritime Economies); by the contrary, a negative effect is expected for landlocked countries (Non-Maritime Economies) less economic growth, lower trade balance and worse institutional quality index, therefore, the structural challenge is constituted in a sensitivity analysis with opposite coefficients to the empirical evidence found in the mentioned literature of Table 1 (sources) for countries without access to the sea.

2. RESULTS OF THE MODEL DSGE

Previously, the simulated results were compared with the observed data for a non-maritime economy (an exemplified landlocked country by Bolivia) and Maritime Economies in observational equivalence (Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Chile) in order to replicate the economic structures observed in the identified countries.

It was observed that the simulated and observed data came from the calibration of the parameters of the DSGE model, for the Non-Maritime Economy (Bolivian case) and for the Maritime Economies, in terms of Consumption, Investment and Expenditure of the government relative to the GDP and were compared with observed data from the period (1950 – 2014), as well as the steady-state inflation as shown in Table 2.

Table-2. Comparison of the simulated data (model DSGE) and observed data.

	Landlocked Economy		Maritime Economy
	Simulated Data	Observed Data	Simulated Data	Observed Data
C/Y	0.65	0.63	0.65	0.68
I/Y	0.14	0.16	0.18	0.19
G/Y	0.17	0.17	0.17	0.16
S. Inf.	0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03

Note: Proportion of Private Consumption (C) in terms of Product (Y), Investment (Y), Government expenditures (G) and Stationary Inflation (S. Inf.).

According to Figure 2, a simulation of the model was observed between the interaction of greater deviation of the maritime landlocked (e.g., greater distance or time of access to the coast), linked with negative deviation in the investment. This would negatively affect, in greater measure, the real product. 

Figure-2. Landlocked country, investment and production (Simulation in % Deviation standard).

According to Figure 3, the simulation of the model was observed, where the positive deviation of the institutional quality, linked to the positive variability of the investment would be directly related to the variability in the growth of the real product of the real economy. 

Figure-3. Institutional quality, maritime investment and production.(Simulation, in % Deviation standard).

In summary, the first results of the model allowed replication of the simulated data compared to the observed data, both for the Non-Maritime Economy (landlocked country) and for the Maritime Economies (observational equivalence) with approximate values. Similarly, it revealed that greater deviations from landlocked, with lower investment, would translate into negative deviations of the real product; in contrast, the interaction between positive deviations from institutional quality and investment would reflect the greatest positive deviations for the real product.

2.1. Relative Importance of the Maritime and Institutional Landlocked Shocks

2.2. Effects of the Landlocked Country and the Role of the Institutions

2.2.1. The Shock of the Landlocked Country

2.2.2. Role of the Institutional Innovations

In the context of a landlocked country, an expected negative relationship arose from the institutional disturbances, which was reflected in the functions of imposed-response according to the Appendix 5B (according to the raised premise).

2.2.3. Counterfactual Analysis: Mitigation of the Negative Impact

In the scenario of a response contrary to the empirical evidence found with a  structural challenge for a landlocked country (sensitivity analysis), there would be: a) positive relationship between landlocked and institutional quality; b) positive relationship between institutional quality and economic growth (output per worker); c) positive relationship between landlocked and trade balance. According to Table 3, the shock of being landlocked and its permanent effects would be reduced or offset by a 68% metric (in the long term).

Table-3. Shocks of the landlocked country, with a change of institutional response, in the long term.

(Expressed in rate of change)

The long-term effect would decrease by 68% the various negative shocks on the non-maritime product, the non-maritime aggregate investment, the consumption of non-maritime families, social welfare and real monetary balances (see Appendix 5C).

Similarly, the effects of simulated institutional innovations showed a reversal from negative shocks to positive innovations in Table 4, considering an opposite change in the structural response of the country without sovereign access to the sea (landlocked and institutional quality; institutional quality and economic growth (output per worker); landlocked and trade balance).

According to Appendix 5D, the institutional innovations had permanent long-term effects, with mitigating actions as a reverse mechanism, though elastic or highly sensitive (average change is 1.3 times).

Table-4. Effects of institutional innovations, in a context of being landlocked, in the long term.

 (Expressed in rate of change)

As a result, in the face of institutional innovations, the long-term response shifted from a negative shock to positive or near-zero innovations in macro aggregates.

3. RESULTS, DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS OF PUBLIC POLICIES

Traditionally, previous studies have been linked to revealing strategic policies for the promotion and development of foreign trade (via investments and external relations), as a mitigation mechanism for the landlocked condition such as limiting restrictive export policies, offering reforms in export policy (e.g., reducing paperwork and bureaucratic export costs); transformations in the differentiated import regime and policy (lower tariffs for raw materials or capital goods); free trade or unrestricted import policies (without quotas); government subsidy for transport costs; among other strategies (Faye et al., 2004; Normizan and Yasunori, 2014; Sharma and Davaakhuu, 2015).

As a result, the Ministerial Conference of Landlocked Countries and Transit of Developing Countries established the action program called APoA in 2003 (United Nations (UN), 2004) which established five lines of action to combat the negative implications of maritime restriction: 1) secure access to and from the sea in free transit; 2) reduce transport costs; 3) reduce delays and uncertainty in the trade route; 4) improve transport infrastructure with the support of international cooperation; and, 5) develop transport corridors in order to improve trade flow.

The APoA policies are based on the estimations found for the importance of production cost disturbances in productivity variability (maritime and non-maritime) which is close to 80% of explanation, especially in a period of five years and up  and pointing out that independent of time; they exert the greatest source of variability (close to 70%) on the risk premium.

However, this document showed an empirical observance of compliance: the shock of the maritime landlocked condition or the disturbance of distance from the maritime coast, which causes a negative and permanent effect on the non-maritime goods and services of a landlocked country (production and consumption), as well as identifying itself as the greatest source of variability compared to other explanation factors.

However, we can disagree with the existence of countries with the lowest per capita income (at purchasing power parity), which correspond in open access to the sea coast (e.g., Madagascar, Mozambique, the Congo or Liberia); or three cases of landlocked countries located in the richest 10% of the world (e.g., Luxembourg, Switzerland and Austria) have been cited.

The channel of transmission between the landlockedness and the economic dynamics of the countries focus on the negative relationship that exists in an expected (average) context between the restriction of access to the sea and the institutional quality; likewise, the reverse dynamic relationship that exist between the deterioration of institutional quality and economic growth.

A relevant factor is the response of institutional quality to the shock of a landlocked country and its structural relations with investment, economic growth, the external sector and the level of social welfare, which counteracts the adverse impacts and allows us to discern and explain why some implications are negative and others have positive effects on the economic dynamics of countries.

Finally, a non-attempted act was originally reflected in the relevance of production cost innovations (marginal costs) in the risk premium as the source of greater variability. 

In summary, as a central element for policy implications, the conditioning of institutional quality is enhanced to counteract the negative impact of being landlocked. In previous research, Acemoglu et al. (2001) found that institutions accounted for 28% of economic growth, similar to the 20% estimate found for the model addressed.

4. LIMITATIONS OF RESEARCH AND AGENDA FOR FUTURE WORK

As a result of the importance linked to the role of institutions in the dynamics of landlocked countries (without access to the sea), new challenges are posed in the measurement of institutionalism, which is an agenda for future work: hostile neighbors, colonial heritage, economic freedom, democracy, political stability and property rights (Narayan et al., 2011; Peev and Mueller, 2012; Aisen and Veiga, 2013; Sievers and Urbatsch, 2018).

Similarly, a modeling with Bayesian estimates can be contemplated in the calibration of the parameters of the model in order to refine the findings with a more disaggregated specification on the part of the institutional indicators.

Another research potential, could be the interaction of institutional role and the double curse in terms of landlocked and dependence on natural resources (natural resource curse) (Hance, 1975; Mehlum et al., 2006; Arvis et al., 2010; Sharma and Davaakhuu, 2015).
In the same vein, in future research, important counterfactual or comparative cases can be considered through old questions with new angles: what explains the difference between developed and at the same time landlocked countries (e.g., Luxembourg, Switzerland and Austria) against countries that are at the last percentile of income? The main challenge would be focused on economic structuring and assumptions in the establishment of modeling.

Assuming a level of exogeneity about the role of institutions in the economic dynamics of countries, with or without access to the sea, what determines or explains the behavior of the institutions? How can the response mechanism in the institutions be changed? These are open questions for future research work, with the consideration of a critical assumption of considering institutions as endogenous rather than exogenous. For this reason, some important premises are highlighted: the role of colonization (legal origin) in institutions, determining historical factors and the impact of economic geography (La Porta et al., 1999; Acemoglu et al., 2001; Auer, 2013).

Finally, it is possible to include the spatial effect and institutional quality of neighboring countries, as well as charges and impositions for transit infrastructure, political relations in non-cooperative playing conditions (tariffs and administrative procedures), between countries with maritime coasts and landlocked countries (Faye et al., 2004; Bosker and Garretsen, 2009; Normizan and Yasunori, 2014).

5. CONCLUSIONS

This study addressed two research questions: the first one is linked to the shocks of being a landlocked country, and the second question addressed was a mechanism to mitigate the effect and their respective quantification.

The general premise of permanent negative effects on Non-Maritime Goods (those that characterize a Mediterranean country) was raised, as well as the premise on the role of institutions to counteract such an adverse effect.

To this end, a 2x2x2 model was adapted, whose approach is constituted in an alternative model, not observed or noticed in the existing literature, as a non-conventional approach in comparison with other previous methodologies (e.g., standard regressions), which provides additive inferences and estimates to the set of existing research with implications for the application of public policies from an institutional explanation.

In this sense, an economy was considered to possess two types of consumers: maritime families and non-maritime families; two types of goods and firms: maritime products (fishing and maritime industry) and non-maritime products (traditional products of a landlocked country); two factors of production: physical capital stock and labor (maritime and non-maritime, respectively). 

The model was calibrated for a specific case: the Bolivian economy (example of a country with maritime landlocked) and in observational equivalence with similar countries in conditions of access to the sea for impact assessment purposes.

The results revealed the relative importance of aggregate production from the shocks of the landlocked country (about 80%) and the institutional innovations (20% remaining) using a dynamic approach.

There was evidence of the negative effect of the permanent shock of the landlocked country on Non-Maritime goods or production (-2% annual), similar to the impact on Non-maritime consumption and social welfare; Non-maritime aggregate investment (-7%).
By introducing structural response changes (parameters) in the relationship including: a) landlocked-institutional quality; b) institutional quality-economic growth; c) landlocked-trade balance, the negative shock of a landlocked country would be reduced by 68%. Institutional innovations would change from negative effects to positive impacts, permanently, on the country's economic dynamics in a context of landlocked, which highlights the important role played by the institution in the implementation of public policies as a mitigating action.

The structural challenge means changing the empirical evidence found: where the condition of being a landlocked country is related to institutions with lower institutional quality (measured by an index) and having a negative impact on the level of economic activity on a permanent basis. However, mitigating or reversing the condition of being a landlocked country would imply a reduction in the negative impact on non-maritime goods.

Finally, new questions have been presented for future research aimed at explaining the factors that determine the behavior of institutional quality as a problem of endogeneity and the inclusion of the spatial effect in the vicinity of countries.

Funding: This study received no specific financial support.

Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Acknowledgement: All authors contributed equally to the conception and design of the study.

REFERENCES

Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J.A. Robinson, 2001. The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation. American Economic Review, 91(5): 1369-1401.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.5.1369.

Aisen, A. and F.J. Veiga, 2013. How does political instability affect economic growth? European Journal of Political Economy, 29: 151-167.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2012.11.001.

Arvis, J.F., J.-F. Marteau and G. Raballand, 2010. The cost of being landlocked: Logistics costs and supply chain reliability. Direction in Development Trade, No. 55837. The World Bank.

Auer, R.A., 2013. Geography, institutions, and the making of comparative development. Journal of Economic Growth, 18(2): 179-215.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-013-9087-z.

Banegas, R.R.A., M.A.N. Ramírez and L.F.E. Caba, 2017. Natural resources, tradable and non-tradable sector: An exemplification with Bolivia, a boom-tradable and non-tradable model. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(5): 68-82.

Barro, R.J., 1991. Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2): 407-443.Available at: https://doi.org/10.2307/2937943.

Benigno, P. and M. Woodford, 2003. Optimal monetary and fiscal policy: A linear-quadratic approach. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 18: 271-333.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1086/ma.18.3585260.

Bonaldi, P., J.D. Prada, A. González, D. Rodríguez and L.E. Rojas, 2011. Numerical method for the calibration of a DSGE model. Development and Society Magazine, 68: 119-156.

Bosker, M. and H. Garretsen, 2009. Economic development and the geography of institutions. Journal of Economic Geography, 9(3): 295-328.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbn047.

Cabezas, G.E., 2016. A dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the Ecuadorian economy. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella., Master Thesis.

Calvo, G.A., 1983. Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3): 383-398.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(83)90060-0.

Carmignani, F., 2015. The curse of being landlocked: Institutions rather than trade. The World Economy, 38(10): 1594-1617.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12248.

Christiano, L.J., M. Eichenbaum and C.L. Evans, 2005. Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy. Journal of Political Economy, 113(1): 1-45.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1086/426038.

Comeau, L., 2003. Democracy and growth: A relationship revisited. Eastern Economic Journal, 29(1): 1-21.

Dollar, D. and A. Kraay, 2003. Institutions, trade, and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(1): 133-162.

Elosegui, P. and N. Grosman, 2016. Structural economic model for Ecuador: A Dollar-ized and oil-ized. Economic, 62: 23-53.

Faye, M.L., J.W. McArthur, J.D. Sachs and T. Snow, 2004. The challenges facing landlocked developing countries. Journal of Human Development, 5(1): 31-68.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/14649880310001660201.

Feenstra, R.C., R. Inklaar and P. Marcel, 2015. The next generation of the penn world table. American Economic Review, 105(10): 3150-3182.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20130954.

Fulk, N., 2017. The relationship between a nation-state being land-locked and its economic development. Hope College, Holland, Michigan. No. 4-21-2017.

García-Cicco, J., M. Kirchner and S. Justel, 2015. Financial frictions and the transmission of foreign shocks in Chile. Working Paper, No. 722, Santiago, Chile: Central Bank of Chile.

Hance, W., 1975. The geography of modern Africa. New York: Columbia University Press.

Head, K., T. Mayer and J. Ries, 2010. The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence. Journal of International Economics, 81(1): 1-14.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2010.01.002.

Knack, S. and P. Keefer, 1995. Institutions and economic performance: Cross-country tests using alternative institutional measures. Economics & Politics, 7(3): 207-227.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0343.1995.tb00111.x.

Kormendi, R.C. and P.G. Meguire, 1985. Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Croat-country evidence. Journal of Monetarv Economics, 16(2): 141-163.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(85)90027-3.

La Porta, R., F. Lopez-de-Silanes, A. Shleifer and R. Vishny, 1999. The quality of government. The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 15(1): 222-279.

Lahiri, B. and F.K. Masjid, 2012. Landlocked countries: A way to integrate with coastal economies. Journal of Economic Integration, 27(4): 505-519.Available at: https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2012.27.4.505.

León, E.S., 2016. Mortgage credit: Lending and borrowing constraints in a DSGE framework (No. 15-2016). Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper.

MacKellar, L., A. Wörgötter and J. Wörz, 2002. Economic growth of landlocked countries. In G. Chaloupek, A. Guger, E. Nowotny  and G. Schwödiauer (Eds.), Ökonomie in Theorie und Praxis. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. pp: 213-226.

McMillan, J., G. Rausser and S. Johnson, 1991. Freedoms and economic growth. No IPR27. Institute for Policy Reform.

Mehlum, H., K. Moene and R. Torvik, 2006. Institutions and the resource curse. The Economic Journal, 116(508): 1-20.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2006.01045.x.

Moore, A.J., 2017. Quantifying the landlocked trade penalty using structural gravity. Journal of Quantitative Economics, 16(3): 769-786.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40953-017-0106-3.

Narayan, P.K., S. Narayan and R. Smyth, 2011. Does democracy facilitate economic growth or does economic growth facilitate democracy? An empirical study of Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic Modelling, 28(3): 900-910.

Normizan, B. and I. Yasunori, 2014. Export competition between landlocked and coastal countries: An analysis of strategic export policies. Review of Development Economics, 18(4): 804-812.

North, D., 1990. Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Olson, M., 1982. The rise and decline of nations. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Osorio-Copete, L.M., 2016. Tax reform and labor informality in Colombia: An analysis of dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium. Essays on Economic Policy, 34(80): 126-145.

Paudel, R.C., 2014. Economic growth in developing countries: Is landlockedness destiny? Economic Papers: A Journal of Applied Economics and Policy, 33(4): 339-361.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12096.

Peev, E. and D.C. Mueller, 2012. Democracy, economic freedom and growth in transition economies. Kyklos, 65(3): 371-407.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6435.2012.00543.x.

Raballand, G., 2003. Determinants of the negative impact of being landlocked on trade: An empirical investigation through the Central Asian case. Comparative Economic Studies, 45(4): 520-536.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100031.

Rock, M.T., 2009. Has democracy slowed growth in Asia? World Development, 37(5): 941-952.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2008.09.002.

Sachs, J.D. and A.M. Warner, 1995. Natural resource abundance and economic growth (No. w5398). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Sharma, K. and O. Davaakhuu, 2015. Trade policymaking in a resource-rich landlocked country: The WTO review of Mongolia. The World Economy, 38(9): 1350-1367.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12271.

Sievers, B. and R. Urbatsch, 2018. Endogenous borders and access to the sea. Political Geography, 63(2018): 43-53.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2018.01.002.

Smets, F. and R. Wouters, 2003. An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Euro Area. Journal of the European Economic Association, 1(5): 1123-1175.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1162/154247603770383415.

Tornell, A. and A. Velasco, 1992. The tragedy of the commons and economic growth: Why does capital flow from poor to rich countries? Journal of Political Economy, 100(6): 1208-1231.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1086/261858.

United Nations (UN), 2004. Almaty programme of action addressing the special needs for landlocked developing countries within a new global framework for transit transport cooperation and transit developing countries. United Nations. Available from http://www.un-documents.net/almaty-p.htm.

APPENDICES

APPENDIX 1: DSGE MODEL 2X2X2

A1. MARITIME CONSUMERS, NON-MARITIME AND SOCIAL WELFARE

A2. MARITIME AND NON-MARITIME FIRMS

Intermediate Goods Producing Firms
The economy's aggregate production depends on the level of intermediate goods production and a substitution elasticity for intermediate goods:

The optimization problem focuses on minimizing the budgetary costs of production A22 subject to the production function as A14 and A15. 

Price fixing according to Calvo (1983)

The Calvo (1983) holds that the current price level is a composition between rigidity, in probabilistic terms θ, with the possibility of maintaining the same price from the previous period and the remaining probability (1-θ) with transition to an optimal price:

A3. GOVERNMENT

In government, the tax authority collects taxes, has oil revenues, conducts current public expenditures and government fixed investment.

The government's current consumption expenditure is considered as a factor dependent on its own innovations by virtue of the absence of a fiscal rule.

A4. MONETARY POLITICS

The central bank is considered as being guided by an action of nominal and real growth in money balances, where A43 and A44 are equal money demand and money supply growth:

Likewise, the discretion of the Central Bank in the interest rate responds to the product gap and it is a  function of inflation (similar to a Taylor scheme), and innovations in monetary growth (A45 and A46) with feedback of oil shocks:

A5. EXTERNAL SECTOR

The objective of this section is to link basic relations between trade balance, sensitivity to the real exchange rate, different accounting equivalences of external savings or current account deficit and their relation to external debt, risk premium, interest rates and the level of economic activity.

In this section, other AR disturbances are assumed: an exchange-rate self-regulatory shock, one in private investment-save, one of marginal costs or production costs and another of inflationary shock, from A57 to A60:

A6. ROLE OF THE LANDLOCKED AND INSTITUTIONS

The estimation of these parameters corresponds to average effects, subject to variable control and the use of econometric instruments to avoid endogeneity problems or simultaneous conditions of explanation (Dollar and Kraay, 2003; Head et al., 2010; Paudel, 2014; Carmignani, 2015) where institutional quality is assumed to be  a component of exogenous innovation,  in the expressions from A61 to A63:

Appendix-2. Model Calibration

Appendix 3.  Steady state.

Appendix-4. Analysis of Variance Decomposition (in Percentage Composition).

… CONTINUATION OF APPENDIX 4…

… CONTINUATION OF APPENDIX 4…

… CONTINUATION OF APPENDIX 4…

Appendix-5. Impulse-Response Functions

Appendix-5a. Effect of the shock of being landlocked in Bolivia (in number of periods (years) forward).

Appendix-5b. Effect of institutional innovation in the context of being a landlocked country
(In Number of Periods (Years) Forward).

Appendix-5c. Structural challenge: Mitigation of the shock of being a landlocked country (in number of periods (years) forward).

Appendix-5d.  Structural challenge: institutional challenge to counter the landlocked (in Number of Periods (Years) Forward).

Appendix-6. Used variables.

Variables	Estimations	Assumption
Variables in steady state	Derived from model calibration.	Own estimations of log-linear variables. Counterfactual economies: Elosegui and Grosman (2016). Bonaldi et al. (2011). García-Cicco et al. (2015). León (2016). Cabezas (2016). Osorio-Copete (2016).
C, I, G, YNM, YM and other macro variables.	Normalized in relation to the product (Y),	Comparable data observed from Penn World Table (1950 -2014).
CI	Institutional Quality Index	It's between 0 and 1, the higher the better.
Stochastic and individual shocks	2% increase	All shocks in the model are identical and persistent idiosyncratic disturbances, which monitor reactions to the same magnitude of variability.

Views and opinions expressed in this article are the views and opinions of the author(s), Asian Economic and Financial Review shall not be responsible or answerable for any loss, damage or liability etc. caused in relation to/arising out of the use of the content.

---

Footnote: