https://archive.aessweb.com/index.php/5009/issue/feed 2026-01-19T07:21:05-06:00 Open Journal Systems https://archive.aessweb.com/index.php/5009/article/view/5730 2025-11-21T23:09:34-06:00 Hassen Soltani hsoltani@ub.edu.sa

<p>This paper investigates the nonlinear impact of the TND/USD exchange rate and real GDP on inflation in Tunisia over the period 1984–2023 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach. The analysis introduces quadratic terms to identify possible U-shaped or threshold relationships between the variables. Unit root tests confirm that all series are integrated of order one, I(1), and the bounds test indicates the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship (F-statistic ≈ 8.59). The estimated error-correction model suggests a rapid adjustment toward long-run equilibrium, as reflected by the significant and negative error-correction term (−1.64, p &lt; 0.01). In the short run, inflation exhibits a partial exchange-rate pass-through, while in the long run, price dynamics are primarily influenced by real GDP growth. Quantitatively, the estimated turning points obtained from the quadratic specification occur at GDP ≈ 2.9 × 10¹⁰ (2015 USD) and EXCH ≈ 1.4 TND/USD, implying that inflation decreases up to these thresholds and rises beyond them. Overall, the results highlight the relevance of nonlinear monetary and exchange-rate policies that consider threshold effects to enhance price stability in the Tunisian economy.</p>

2025-11-21T00:00:00-06:00 Copyright (c) 2025 https://archive.aessweb.com/index.php/5009/article/view/5814 2026-01-19T07:21:05-06:00 Alpon Satrianto alponsatrianto@fe.unp.ac.id Syamsul Amar syamsul_amar@fe.unp.ac.id Halkadri Fitra halkadri@fe.unp.ac.id Akmil Ikhsan akmilikhsan@gmail.com Mia Ayu Gusti miaayugusti@unp.ac.id

<p>This study investigates the determinants of economic growth in West Sumatra Province over the period 2011–2023, focusing on both supply- and demand-side factors. A dynamic panel regression model is employed using the Generalized Method of Moments approach, which is particularly suitable for addressing potential endogeneity issues and capturing temporal dynamics in panel data analysis. The explanatory variables include aggregate supply-side factors, namely lagged economic growth, investment, labor, technology, and the Human Development Index (HDI), as well as aggregate demand-side factors, consisting of household consumption, government expenditure, and net exports. The estimation results reveal that, on the supply side, previous economic growth, investment, technology, and HDI exert a positive and statistically significant impact on regional economic growth, while labor does not show a significant effect. On the demand side, household consumption and government expenditure are found to have significant positive influences, whereas net exports are not statistically significant, reflecting the limited contribution of export activities to the regional economy. These findings highlight the dual importance of supply-side improvements and demand-side reinforcement in sustaining economic growth.</p>

2026-01-19T00:00:00-06:00 Copyright (c) 2026