Asian Journal of Economic Modelling

Determinants of credit growth in ASEAN banking sector: Insightful understanding from panel quantile regression

Thi Hoang Anh Pham — 2026-03-04

This paper investigates the determinants of credit growth in the ASEAN banking sector by employing the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MM-QR) on an unbalanced panel of 185 banks from ten Southeast Asian countries over the period 2000–2022. Unlike traditional mean-based approaches, MM-QR captures distributional heterogeneity by estimating the effects of both bank-specific and macroeconomic variables across different quantiles of credit growth. This methodology is particularly effective because it provides more comprehensive insights into how determinants influence banks with different levels of credit growth. The findings reveal that non-performing loans (NPLs) negatively impact credit expansion across all quantiles, with the effect intensifying at higher levels of credit growth. Bank size, capital ratio, income diversification, and profitability exhibit non-linear effects that vary depending on a bank’s position within the credit growth distribution. On the macroeconomic front, M2 growth consistently stimulates credit, while GDP growth primarily benefits banks with lower lending activity. Inflation exerts a disproportionately negative effect on low-growth banks. The effects of financial crises also diverge: while the 2008 global crisis allowed high-growth banks to expand, the COVID-19 pandemic severely constrained their lending. These findings underscore the need for targeted regulatory and risk management policies that recognize structural differences in bank behavior and resilience across the region.

Governance quality and economic growth: Panel evidence and difference-in-difference analysis of the Asian financial crisis

Genie Cyprien — 2026-03-05

This research investigates the influence of variations in governance quality on economic growth in Asia-Pacific nations. The study underscores that crises, despite their disruptive nature, can act as accelerators for policy enhancement and institutional fortification. To examine this, the analysis considers crisis times as a quasi-natural experiment and uses a difference-in-differences design, facilitating causal inference by analyzing variations in the variable of interest while keeping other pertinent components relatively stable. Panel data methods are applied to data from 1996 to 2006 across several countries, using pooled OLS, fixed effects, random effects, and a difference-in-differences framework to assess the causal effects. The findings suggest that not all governance indicators significantly influence real GDP growth. Instead, two macroeconomic variables, inflation and the previous year's growth, are identified as primary determinants, with a one-point increase in inflation correlating with a 0.315-point decrease in economic growth, statistically significant at the 1 percent level. The study also shows how financial crises may be disruptive, slowing economic growth during crisis years and creating volatility in post-crisis periods. Practical implications of these results indicate that policymakers and stakeholders must emphasize strengthening governance frameworks and maintaining stable inflation rates to foster long-term economic stability and sustainable growth while promoting institutional resilience.

Gendered dynamics of environmental taxation and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa

Wisdom Okere — 2026-03-05

The complex nexus between environmental taxation and food security is gaining attention in the SSA context. Notwithstanding, policy outcomes remain low and require intervention. This research gap is critical given that SSA continues to struggle with intense food insecurity, driven by climatic shocks, weak infrastructure, and socio-political instability. This study investigates the complex nexus between environmental taxation and food security in SSA with a novel emphasis on gender equity as a moderating factor. Drawing on a balanced panel dataset of 15 SSA nations from 2006 to 2024, the study employs robust econometric techniques including fixed effects (with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors), fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), and panel generalized methods of moments (GMM) to estimate the direct and interaction effects of environmental taxation and gender parity on two core aspects of food security: food availability and food accessibility. Results show that environmental taxation positively impacts food availability when isolated. When moderated with gender equity, the interaction (EGGI) significantly alters the direction and strength of the relationship across models. Specifically, the mediating effect of gender equity enhances food accessibility but reduces food availability, suggesting a slight trade-off in policy design. These findings carry critical implications for policymakers: SSA governments should adopt a policy of revenue earmarking, allocating a predetermined share of environmental tax revenues to gender-responsive agricultural investments.

The impact of CSR posts on social media platforms on customer behavior: The mediating role of electronic word-of-mouth and the reputation of commercial banks

Minh Phuong Nguyen — 2026-04-08

Against the backdrop of an escalating emphasis on sustainable development within the banking sector, corporate social responsibility (CSR) has garnered increasing attention as a pivotal determinant in cultivating reputational capital and attracting clientele. This study undertakes a rigorous examination of the impact of CSR enacted on social media platforms (CSR-S) on customer service utilization behavior, mediated through the dual pathways of electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) and bank reputation (BR). Concurrently, the research investigates the moderating roles of customer engagement (CE) levels and CSR awareness (CA) in the relationships between the mediating variables and service usage intention. Empirical data, comprising 847 responses, were collected from customers across commercial banks in Northern Vietnam and subsequently analyzed employing Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The findings reveal that: (1) CSR-S exerts a positive and significant influence on both eWOM and BR; (2) eWOM and BR positively drive attitudes towards technology adoption and service usage intention; and (3) both CA and CE attenuate the positive relationships between BR, eWOM, and customer behavior. In sum, this research furnishes practical recommendations to assist banks in optimizing their CSR-S strategies with the overarching objectives of enhancing brand prestige and fostering sustained customer service utilization.

Exploring the impact of green finance development on energy efficiency in China: Evidence from panel data and threshold modelling

Yu Tang — 2026-04-28

Energy efficiency is critical for green growth, which is conducive to economic transformation and meeting the challenges associated with climate change. This research employs provincial data from China covering 2010 to 2022 to analyze the progress of energy efficiency under the impact of green finance using Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, feasible generalized least squares, and panel threshold regression methods, and draws the following conclusions. Nationwide, energy efficiency has continued to improve, but there are regional imbalances. The performance of the eastern area is obviously superior compared to that of the middle and western areas, and the optimization effect is more significant. Both green credit and green bonds have an obvious positive association with energy efficiency. With the rise in economic development and R&D expenditure, the benefits of green credit and green bonds on energy efficiency have also increased, especially green bonds showing a stronger threshold effect. Additionally, there is regional heterogeneity between green credit and green bonds in boosting energy efficiency. Eastern provinces have higher impact coefficients, central provinces have moderate values, and western provinces have the lowest. Therefore, we recommend implementing targeted green financial policies, increasing the supply of green finance, and promoting technological innovation to enhance energy utilization.

Bridging the intention-behaviour gaps in life insurance purchasing behaviour

Gan Jia Wei — 2026-04-28

Life insurance acts as a necessary protective instrument for household financial resilience; however, many consumers continue to make suboptimal purchasing decisions, such as underinsurance, overinsurance, or reliance on inappropriate policies. This study integrates the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) with insights from behavioural finance to examine the determinants of optimal decisions in life insurance purchasing behaviour. Specifically, financial literacy and perceived risk are incorporated as additions to TPB, while hyperbolic discounting is introduced as a moderator for the intention-behaviour gap. An online survey was employed to collect data from 304 respondents, and partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) was applied for analysis via SmartPLS 4. The results indicate that optimal purchase decisions are significantly influenced by subjective norm, perceived behavioural control, financial literacy, and perceived risk, whereas attitude is not. Purchase intention partially mediates several of these relationships. Hyperbolic discounting acts as a significant moderator for the intention-behaviour link. The findings contribute to the existing literature by integrating TPB with behavioural finance in decision-making and addressing the importance of financial literacy, perceived risk, and social influence in insurance selection. Policy implications include building consumer confidence through targeted literacy initiatives, strengthening disclosure standards, and developing community-based interventions to promote optimal insurance coverage.

The role of FDI in shaping wage disparities: Evidence from Vietnamese enterprises

Yang Ningjia — 2026-04-28

This study examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) affects wage disparities between foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) and domestic enterprises in Vietnam. Addressing the lack of comprehensive structural analysis in the existing literature, the study develops a theoretical framework that integrates two key mechanisms through which FDI affects wage inequality: labor reallocation and technology spillovers. Based on firm-level panel data from 2005 to 2015, the study empirically investigates the specific contribution of different factors to wage inequality by applying the Shapley value decomposition method. The empirical results reveal that the wage gap between foreign and domestic firms follows an inverted U-shaped pattern during the process of FDI development. In the early stage, FDI inflows significantly widened wage disparities mainly through labor mobility as foreign-invested firms attract higher-skilled workers by offering higher wages. However, as technological spillover effects gradually emerge and domestic firms improve their productivity, the wage gap begins to narrow, with a turning point observed around 2010. These findings suggest that policies should not only focus on attracting foreign investment but also emphasize strengthening technological linkages and enhancing domestic firms’ absorptive capacity. Taking such measures can maximize the positive spillover effects of foreign direct investment while effectively reducing structural wage inequality in developing economies.