https://archive.aessweb.com/index.php/5009 Asian Economic and Social Society en-US Asian Journal of Economic Modelling 2313-2884 https://archive.aessweb.com/index.php/5009/article/view/5616 <p>This research examined the relationship between international phosphate price volatility and economic growth in Morocco for the 1994-2020 period, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to capture the short-run and long-run dynamics. The data used is annual in frequency and includes yearly time series of several key macroeconomic indicators, including nominal GDP, phosphate prices, CO₂ emissions, fertilizer consumption, gross fixed capital formation, and unemployment. The study identified that phosphate price changes significantly affect Morocco’s short-run economic growth but have no statistically significant long-run impact on GDP. The increase of phosphate prices in the short run results in higher export revenues, but long-lasting price volatility limits economic diversification and environmentally sustainable options. Several structural inefficiencies were also found in Morocco’s economy, including the limited effect of capital allocation and high levels of unemployment that restrict sustainable growth. The study identified several key aspects that should be considered by Morocco as it looks to reduce its dependency on the phosphate sector, including economic diversification with a commitment to sustainable resource management across the economy, such as the use of human capital investments, green technologies, infrastructure investments, and appropriate changes to governance and policy. The study highlights the literature contributions of Morocco as an exceptional specific case, being the number one country for phosphate with a highly developed phosphate sector, and emphasizes that sustainable resource expenditure and volatility, drawn from effective policy responses to resource price volatility, are needed to support sustained human development.</p> Mehdi Kharibouch Zineb El Aissaoui Atman Dkhissi Youssef El Ghrabli Copyright (c) 2025 2025-09-23 2025-09-23 13 4 500 516 10.55493/5009.v13i4.5616 https://archive.aessweb.com/index.php/5009/article/view/5658 <p>This study examines whether growth in manufacturing output stimulates employment across South Africa’s broader economy, focusing on sectoral linkages and spillover effects. Anchored in the structural transformation literature, the analysis investigates the extent to which manufacturing acts as a catalyst for inclusive job creation beyond its own sector. Using quarterly time series data from 1963 to 2024 and applying a Structural Autoregressive Distributed Lag (SARDL) model, the study estimates both short-run and long-run effects across six sectors: manufacturing, construction, mining, financial services, trade, and public services. To account for exogenous shocks, interaction terms between manufacturing output and a COVID-19 dummy variable are included. The results reveal strong positive spillovers from manufacturing to employment in the construction, trade, and financial services sectors, while mining and public services exhibit limited responsiveness. Pandemic-induced disruptions significantly weakened these linkages, as evidenced by negative and significant COVID-19 interaction effects. The findings underscore manufacturing’s pivotal role in employment generation and support policies promoting manufacturing-led industrialization and intersectoral integration. This study contributes to debates on structural transformation and labor market dynamics in emerging economies. The study confirms that manufacturing remains a cornerstone of employment generation in South Africa, both within the sector and across the wider economy.</p> Kazeem Abimbola Sanusi Zandri Dickason-Koekemoer Copyright (c) 2025 2025-11-04 2025-11-04 13 4 517 532 10.55493/5009.v13i4.5658