Asian Journal of Economic Modelling

Determinants of credit growth in ASEAN banking sector: Insightful understanding from panel quantile regression

Thi Hoang Anh Pham, Trung Duc Nguyen, Minh Nhat Nguyen — Wed, 04 Mar 2026 00:00:00 -0600

This paper investigates the determinants of credit growth in the ASEAN banking sector by employing the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MM-QR) on an unbalanced panel of 185 banks from ten Southeast Asian countries over the period 2000–2022. Unlike traditional mean-based approaches, MM-QR captures distributional heterogeneity by estimating the effects of both bank-specific and macroeconomic variables across different quantiles of credit growth. This methodology is particularly effective because it provides more comprehensive insights into how determinants influence banks with different levels of credit growth. The findings reveal that non-performing loans (NPLs) negatively impact credit expansion across all quantiles, with the effect intensifying at higher levels of credit growth. Bank size, capital ratio, income diversification, and profitability exhibit non-linear effects that vary depending on a bank’s position within the credit growth distribution. On the macroeconomic front, M2 growth consistently stimulates credit, while GDP growth primarily benefits banks with lower lending activity. Inflation exerts a disproportionately negative effect on low-growth banks. The effects of financial crises also diverge: while the 2008 global crisis allowed high-growth banks to expand, the COVID-19 pandemic severely constrained their lending. These findings underscore the need for targeted regulatory and risk management policies that recognize structural differences in bank behavior and resilience across the region.

Governance quality and economic growth: Panel evidence and difference-in-difference analysis of the Asian financial crisis

Genie Cyprien, Muhamad Iksan — Thu, 05 Mar 2026 00:00:00 -0600

This research investigates the influence of variations in governance quality on economic growth in Asia-Pacific nations. The study underscores that crises, despite their disruptive nature, can act as accelerators for policy enhancement and institutional fortification. To examine this, the analysis considers crisis times as a quasi-natural experiment and uses a difference-in-differences design, facilitating causal inference by analyzing variations in the variable of interest while keeping other pertinent components relatively stable. Panel data methods are applied to data from 1996 to 2006 across several countries, using pooled OLS, fixed effects, random effects, and a difference-in-differences framework to assess the causal effects. The findings suggest that not all governance indicators significantly influence real GDP growth. Instead, two macroeconomic variables, inflation and the previous year's growth, are identified as primary determinants, with a one-point increase in inflation correlating with a 0.315-point decrease in economic growth, statistically significant at the 1 percent level. The study also shows how financial crises may be disruptive, slowing economic growth during crisis years and creating volatility in post-crisis periods. Practical implications of these results indicate that policymakers and stakeholders must emphasize strengthening governance frameworks and maintaining stable inflation rates to foster long-term economic stability and sustainable growth while promoting institutional resilience.

Gendered dynamics of environmental taxation and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa

Wisdom Okere, Cosmas Ambe, Sanele Phumlani Vilakazi — Thu, 05 Mar 2026 00:00:00 -0600

The complex nexus between environmental taxation and food security is gaining attention in the SSA context. Notwithstanding, policy outcomes remain low and require intervention. This research gap is critical given that SSA continues to struggle with intense food insecurity, driven by climatic shocks, weak infrastructure, and socio-political instability. This study investigates the complex nexus between environmental taxation and food security in SSA with a novel emphasis on gender equity as a moderating factor. Drawing on a balanced panel dataset of 15 SSA nations from 2006 to 2024, the study employs robust econometric techniques including fixed effects (with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors), fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), and panel generalized methods of moments (GMM) to estimate the direct and interaction effects of environmental taxation and gender parity on two core aspects of food security: food availability and food accessibility. Results show that environmental taxation positively impacts food availability when isolated. When moderated with gender equity, the interaction (EGGI) significantly alters the direction and strength of the relationship across models. Specifically, the mediating effect of gender equity enhances food accessibility but reduces food availability, suggesting a slight trade-off in policy design. These findings carry critical implications for policymakers: SSA governments should adopt a policy of revenue earmarking, allocating a predetermined share of environmental tax revenues to gender-responsive agricultural investments.