https://archive.aessweb.com/index.php/5049/issue/feed 2026-01-06T04:24:07-06:00 Open Journal Systems https://archive.aessweb.com/index.php/5049/article/view/5790 2026-01-06T01:21:04-06:00 Achouak Barguellil achouak.barguellil@fsegt.utm.tn

<p>This paper aims to investigate the extent to which political and economic uncertainty hinder renewable energy investment and compromise climate change mitigation objectives, specifically comparing the differential effects across advanced and emerging economies. We use a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-ARDL) approach to analyze data from two distinct country panels, consisting of monthly frequency data between 2000 and 2023: 15 advanced economies and 20 emerging and developing economies. Empirical findings indicate a negative long-run relationship between the uncertainty measures and the share of renewable energy in total energy consumption in both panels at a statistical significance level. Most importantly, this dissuasive effect is significantly stronger in the emerging and developing economies, where the renewable energy share decreases by 0.062% for every 1% rise in economic policy uncertainty, while in advanced economies it decreases by 0.045%. The error correction model shows a moderate adjustment speed, which suggests that the adverse effects of uncertainty are persistent in both groups, therefore confirming the theoretical predictions of real options theory. The study identifies institutional quality, economic development, and investment climate as factors moderating the uncertainty effect. Policy implications point to an urgent need for stable and predictable regulatory frameworks, strong institutions, and targeted de-risking mechanisms that catalyze the global energy transition toward ambitious targets, especially in emerging economies.</p>

2026-01-06T00:00:00-06:00 Copyright (c) 2026 https://archive.aessweb.com/index.php/5049/article/view/5791 2026-01-06T04:24:07-06:00 Najeem Olatunji Bashir tunjibash@cuab.edu.ng Habeeb Olaniyi Olayiwola habeeb.olayiwola@federalpolyilaro.edu.ng

<p>The study estimated Nigeria's natural gas demand across the industry, residential, and non-energy sectors, using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model. The study collated annual historical data on natural gas demand by these sectors for the period from 1988 through 2024. While gas demand by the industry and non-energy sectors was found to be influenced by their past demand, demand for gas by the residential sector was noted to be independent of its past demand. For the predictions, demand for gas by the residential sector was forecasted to sustain a consistent growth. Industry gas demand, which was found to be low, was forecasted to gradually recover from the low level over time, while the non-energy sector was forecasted to experience a continuous demand reduction for five consecutive years. It is necessary to make investments towards expanding the gas distribution network to support the consistent demand growth in the residential sector. Policies aimed at industrial recovery should be implemented to boost gas demand, and interventions to mitigate the decline in gas demand in the non-energy sector should be considered.</p>

2026-01-06T00:00:00-06:00 Copyright (c) 2026