The Effect of Trade, Specialization and Financial Integration on Business Cycles Synchronization in Some Mediterranean Countries

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study if bilateral trade, similarity of specialization and capital flows between some Mediterranean countries (Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey) and their main European partners (Germany, France and Italy) have an impact on Business cycles synchronization. Using the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) for dynamic panel over the period of 1980 to 2010, the study found a positive relationship between bilateral trade and similarity of specialization on one hand and business cycle correlation on the other hand. However, financial flows remain without significant effect on business cycle synchronization.