Determinants of Inward FDI in Mongolia: An Application of the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration

Abstract

The study at hand is the first of its kind that aimed to provide a comprehensive analysis of the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mongolia by analyzing their short-run, long-run, and Granger causal relationships. In doing so, we methodically used a series of econometric methods to ensure reliable and robust estimation results that included the augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests, the most recently advanced autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, fully modified ordinary least squares, and the Granger causality test within the vector error-correction model (VECM) framework. Our findings revealed domestic market size and human capital to have a U-shaped relationship with FDI inflows, with an initial positive impact on FDI in the short-run, which then turns negative in the long-run. Macroeconomic instability was found to deter FDI inflows in the long-run. In terms of the impact of trade on FDI, imports were found to have a complementary relationship with FDI; while exports and FDI were found to be substitutes in the short-run. Financial development was also found to induce a deterring effect on FDI inflows in both the short- and long-run; thereby also revealing a substitutive relationship between the two. Infrastructure level was not found to have a significant impact on FDI on any conventional level, in either the short- or long-run. Furthermore, the results have exhibited significant Granger causal relationships between the variables; thereby, ultimately stressing the significance of policy choice in not only attracting FDI inflows, but also in translating their positive spill-over benefits into long-run economic growth.