The Performance Persistence of Winner Fund Managers - Evidence from the Timing and Stock Picking Ability

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the persistence of timing and stock picking ability of “winner fund managers” instead of winner funds. The sample of this study is the previous and next equity funds which the same fund managers manage in Taiwan. we measure the ranking of timing and stock picking ability of fund managers for the period they manage the specific fund. The result shows that for the whole fund managers, the successive two funds they manage are performance persistent. Moreover, the stock picking ability of the two funds they manage is persistent no matter the two funds belonging to the same fund company or not. Regarding the winner fund manager, we find no persistence of return, timing ability and stock picking ability. No matter the winner fund managers change the jobs to the other fund companies or not, the next funds the winner fund managers manage are not timing and stock picking ability persistent. The result of logistic regression demonstrates that the probability of becoming timing or stock picking winners of the next funds which the timing or stock picking winner managers manage is not significantly higher than other funds. The result indicates that investors do not necessarily follow the timing and stock picking winner fund managers. The performance of the next funds which the winner fund managers manage may reverse especially for the successive two funds belonging to the same fund company. Little literature investigates the issue regarding the fund timing and stock picking performance from the viewpoint of “fund managers”. The results of this study provide investing implications for fund investors when they are choosing funds.