Effects of Changes in Foreign Exchange Reserves and Real Effective Exchange Rate on Industrial Output Growths in Bangladesh

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of foreign exchange reserves and real effective exchange rate on industrial output in Bangladesh. Quarterly data are used from 1981-1982 to 2013-2014. The standard ARDL procedure and VECM are applied. Both DF-GLS and Ng-Perron efficient tests exhibit non-stationarity of each variable in log-level with I (1) behavior. The ARDL estimates provide evidence of co-integration among the variables. The VECM estimates confirm convergence with moderate pace of adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. Short-run net interactive effect of foreign reserves on industrial output is weakly positive while the net effect of real effective exchange rate is negative.