Finance-Growth Volatility Nexus: Evidence from Lebanon

Abstract

A generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model incorporating shocks of financial deepening and growth variables in the variance equation of the other variable respectably is used to investigate whether there is a significant bi-directional spillover of shocks between the two variables in Lebanon. We find that even though there is a bidirectional Granger-causality between financial deepening and economic growth after 7 months, financial deepening Granger-causes economic growth after one month and exhibit stronger feedbacks in both shocks and conditional variance. We offer some policy suggestions specific to the desired strategy intervention in the Lebanese economy that are consistent with our empirical results.