A Comparison of the Economic Volatility Spillover Effect of Hong Kong with China and USA

Abstract

Hong Kong has been part of China now for over twenty years. The economic activities between the two regions are more integrated due to policies for enhancing trade and finance, location convenience and fast economic growth in China. This article examined the economic integration between Hong Kong and China in terms of the volatility spillover effect of four economic indicators, namely real GDP growth rate, inflation rate, M2 supply and the three-month interbank offer rate. We used the Bivariate Multivariate GARCH model. As the USA has been the biggest trade partner of Hong Kong, the economic effect of the USA on Hong Kong was also analyzed. We found that the economic volatility of China significantly spills over to Hong Kong while there is less evidence found for a spillover effect from the USA. As the Hong Kong Dollar is still strictly pegged with the US Dollar, this paper provides evidence for the evaluation of Hong Kong’s monetary policy on the exchange rate system.