Do global investors weather the storm? Evidence from mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets

Abstract

This study examines the influence of extreme weather events on stock market behavior in China, focusing on the Shanghai and Hong Kong Stock Exchanges. This article’s hypothesis is that local weather affects individual investors in Shanghai more significantly due to their short-term, speculative trading habits. In contrast, institutional investors in Hong Kong are less influenced by short-term considerations due to their long-term strategies and access to resources. The Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GJR-GARCH) estimator can test the hypothesis under different market conditions and volatility clustering. The analysis utilizes daily financial and meteorological data from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2023. The GJR-GARCH estimator incorporates variables such as air pressure, humidity, sunshine hours, and temperature. The results show that extreme weather has a more pronounced effect on the Shanghai market than the Hong Kong market. Furthermore, extreme weather events influence stock turnover and volatility more than stock returns, reflecting shifts in investment behavior. The hypothesis is further tested to determine whether it remains valid during bull and bear markets, which are emotionally charged periods. The hypothesis still holds, albeit with less pronounced effects. Thus, extreme weather can impact stock market performance, with the composition of investors playing a significant role.