Abstract
The ensuing paper aims to explore the future growth pattern of the market size of air-conditioner and refrigerator industry in India. Though this industry has witnessed phenomenal growth in the past, with multi-generation technology products driving it, its growth has remained erratic in nature. This paper also ratifies if the industry would survive the existing market size growth trend. In this predictive assessment, univariate time series data of net sales, collected from CMIE, is used. The data, spreading across 14 years, have 56 observations and exhibit both trend and seasonality. Forecast of market size is made using the best model derived from comparative approaches that include SARIMA, triple exponential smoothing and neural network. SARIMA model is found to best fit the historical data for predictive purpose and the study outcome suggests market size to grow till 2020. Finally, Weibull’s function is used to analyze reliability of the forecast results which indicates diminishing trend of the market size growth. Finally, it is concluded that the current erratic nature of market size growth would disappear.