Abstract
The study estimated Nigeria's natural gas demand across the industry, residential, and non-energy sectors, using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model. The study collated annual historical data on natural gas demand by these sectors for the period from 1988 through 2024. While gas demand by the industry and non-energy sectors was found to be influenced by their past demand, demand for gas by the residential sector was noted to be independent of its past demand. For the predictions, demand for gas by the residential sector was forecasted to sustain a consistent growth. Industry gas demand, which was found to be low, was forecasted to gradually recover from the low level over time, while the non-energy sector was forecasted to experience a continuous demand reduction for five consecutive years. It is necessary to make investments towards expanding the gas distribution network to support the consistent demand growth in the residential sector. Policies aimed at industrial recovery should be implemented to boost gas demand, and interventions to mitigate the decline in gas demand in the non-energy sector should be considered.