Abstract
This study examines the dynamic relationship between Vietnam’s ecological footprint, economic growth, and industrial production during its period of rapid industrialization and pursuit of sustainable development. The purpose is to test the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, which posits that environmental degradation worsens in the early stages of growth but improves once income reaches a certain threshold. Using annual data from 1987 to 2023, the study investigates how industrialization affects environmental quality at different stages of development. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) models are employed to capture both short- and long-run relationships, as well as nonlinear and asymmetric effects among variables. The findings confirm a long-run cointegrating relationship among ecological footprint, GDP, and industrial production. Economic growth initially increases environmental pressure but shows signs of an EKC turning point at higher income quantiles. Industrial production has a dual effect: when pollution levels are low, it contributes to improving environmental quality through technological progress, while at higher pollution levels, it intensifies environmental degradation. These results emphasize that the growth–environment relationship in Vietnam is nonlinear and stage-dependent. Practical implications include promoting the adoption of green technologies, developing eco-industrial parks, integrating environmental goals into industrial policies, and designing adaptive strategies consistent with Vietnam’s commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.