Abstract
This study investigates the macroeconomic determinants of China's electromechanical product exports to ASEAN countries, focusing on how economic scale, exchange rates, trade costs, and trade facilitation measures influence bilateral trade flows. An extended gravity model is applied using panel data from 2010 to 2019, covering seven ASEAN countries (Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam). The analysis incorporates bilateral GDP, RMB real effective exchange rate, average tariffs, distance-weighted transportation costs, and a Trade Facilitation Index derived from Global Competitiveness Report data through Principal Component Analysis. The results reveal that ASEAN countries' GDP is the dominant driver of export flows, with an elasticity coefficient of 1.191, indicating that demand for technology-intensive products grows more than proportionally with economic development. Exchange rate appreciation positively affects exports through quality signaling effects, while trade costs exhibit complex relationships with export performance. Trade facilitation measures strengthen export competitiveness through complementarities with traditional macroeconomic factors, though their effects are secondary to macroeconomic fundamentals. By extending gravity model applications to technology-intensive exports within regional integration contexts, this research provides insights into the interaction of macroeconomic variables in determining trade flows. The findings suggest that policymakers in China and ASEAN should prioritize supporting economic capacity building, stabilizing exchange rates for high-end market positioning, reducing tariffs and transport costs, and improving customs efficiency and logistics systems to enhance bilateral trade cooperation.